* WHAT. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE. Anne Arundel County. * WHEN. From 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* WHAT. Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and waves 3 to 6 ft. * WHERE. Chesapeake Bay from North Beach MD to Smith Point VA, Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA, Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River, Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD, and Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island. * WHEN. From Friday evening through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS. Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels.

* WHAT. For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt expected. For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft expected. * WHERE. Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, Chesapeake Bay north of North Beach MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor, Chester River to Queenstown MD, and Eastern Bay. * WHEN. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT Saturday night. * IMPACTS. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels.

* WHAT. For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt expected. For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft expected. * WHERE. Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, Chesapeake Bay north of North Beach MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor, Chester River to Queenstown MD, and Eastern Bay. * WHEN. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT Saturday night. * IMPACTS. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Colonial Beach * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway signs will sustain damage. - A few roads will be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: this evening until early Sunday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 3 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should soon be brought to completion before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or needlessly risk lives. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Severe storm surge flooding will likely cause inundation of numerous roads and buildings, resulting in a threat to life and property. Flooding will likely extend inland from the waterfront and shoreline flooding homes, businesses and isolating some neighborhoods. Large breaking waves will result in additional damage near the shoreline. - Numerous roads flooded or washed out. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching some dunes. - Severe damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is expected. Small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected marinas and docks. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Flooding from heavy rainfall may prompt evacuations and rescues - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen, with swift currents, and overspill their banks. Small streams, creeks, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures and/or weaken foundations. Some areas may experience areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures are expected. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://ready.gov/hurricanes - www.readyvirginia.gov - weather.gov/akq

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Colonial Beach * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway signs will sustain damage. - A few roads will be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: this evening until early Sunday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 3 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should soon be brought to completion before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or needlessly risk lives. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Severe storm surge flooding will likely cause inundation of numerous roads and buildings, resulting in a threat to life and property. Flooding will likely extend inland from the waterfront and shoreline flooding homes, businesses and isolating some neighborhoods. Large breaking waves will result in additional damage near the shoreline. - Numerous roads flooded or washed out. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching some dunes. - Severe damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is expected. Small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected marinas and docks. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Flooding from heavy rainfall may prompt evacuations and rescues - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen, with swift currents, and overspill their banks. Small streams, creeks, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures and/or weaken foundations. Some areas may experience areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures are expected. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://ready.gov/hurricanes - www.readyvirginia.gov - weather.gov/akq

* WHAT. One to two feet of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. In District of Columbia, District of Columbia. In Virginia, Fairfax, Stafford and Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park Counties, and Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria. * WHEN. Late Saturday night, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. Numerous roads may be closed. Low lying property including homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure may be inundated. Some shoreline erosion may occur. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one and a half to two feet above normal. The worst flooding will occur with the Saturday morning and Saturday evening high tides.

* WHAT. One to two feet of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Charles and King George Counties. * WHEN. From Saturday morning through Saturday evening, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water reaches yards near Cobb Island and docks near Dahlgren. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two and a half to three feet above normal. The worst flooding will occur with the Saturday morning and Saturday evening high tides.

* WHAT. One to two feet of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in St. Marys County. * WHEN. From late tonight through Sunday morning, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water covers roads on Saint George Island, is in yards, and is approaching structures. To the east, inundation is occurring at multiple marinas off St. Mary's River, Smith Creek, and Jutland Creek. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two and a half to three feet above normal. The worst flooding will occur with the Saturday morning and Saturday evening high tides.

* WHAT. One to two feet of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Anne Arundel County. * WHEN. From Saturday evening through late Saturday night, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water reaches the floor of the Maritime Museum in Annapolis, begins to cover Bowyer Road on the Naval Academy campus, and numerous businesses on Dock Street are flooded, along with the City Dock parking lot. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The worst flooding will occur with the Saturday morning and Saturday evening high tides.

* WHAT. Up to one foot of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Calvert County. * WHEN. From Saturday morning through Saturday evening, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.0 feet, water is expected to reach backyards near 9th Street in North Beach, and could approach 9th Street. At 3.5 feet, yards are flooded near Charles Street and Williams Street in Solomons. Nearby parking lots and the streets themselves are covered by more than a half foot of water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The worst flooding will occur with the Saturday morning and Saturday evening high tides.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Calvert * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: early Saturday morning until early Sunday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://ready.gov/hurricanes

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - St Marys City * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: early Saturday morning until early Sunday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://ready.gov/hurricanes

This product covers Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia **Tropical Storm Conditions Expected over Southern Maryland Tonight thorugh Early Sunday** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calvert and St. Marys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 590 miles south-southeast of Washington DC - 30.5N 75.0W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement North or 360 degrees at 14 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move north-northwestward toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast today before moving northward near the Mid-Atlantic Coast Saturday through Sunday. The main threat will be a storm surge with inundation around 2 to 3 feet most likely for locations along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay as well as the shore of the tidal Potomac River. The highest water levels will be around times of high tide Saturday through Saturday night. Rainfall will most likely average between 2 to 4 inches with localized amounts up to 5 inches possible. This may result in isolated instances of flooding, especially for low lying and flood prone areas. The heaviest rain is most likely to occur Saturday into Saturday night. Tropical Storm force winds are most likely over southern Maryland and the nearby waters south of North Beach along the Chesapeake Bay and south of Cobb Island along the tidal Potomac River. However, gale-force winds are expected along the waters father north along the Chesapeake Bay as well as the tidal Potomac River. Gusty winds and a saturated ground may cause downed trees and power outages. While the severe weather threat is low, an isolated tornado cannot out be ruled across southern Maryland on Saturday afternoon and evening. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts. Potential impacts in this area include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * SURGE: Moderate tidal inundation is possible along the shore of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac River. - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN: Isolated instances of flooding are possible due to locally heavy rainfall. The best chance for flooding will be in low lying flood prone areas as well as urban locations. - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across southern Maryland. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across southern Maryland. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- Closely monitor weather.gov. NOAA Weather Radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC around 11:15 AM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

This product covers CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for Accomack, Camden, Eastern Currituck, Gloucester, Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Suffolk, Surry, Virginia Beach, Western Currituck, and York - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect for Bertie, Chowan, Northumberland, and Westmoreland - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Chesapeake, Dorchester, Gates, Hertford, Inland Worcester, Maryland Beaches, Richmond, Somerset, and Wicomico * STORM INFORMATION: - About 540 miles south of Ocean City MD or about 450 miles south of Norfolk VA - 30.5N 75.0W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement North or 360 degrees at 14 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen continues to strengthen off the southeast coast this morning, and will move northward toward the mid-Atlantic region through Saturday, possibly briefly becoming a tropical storm before making landfall across the coastal Carolinas early Saturday. Regardless of the exact track, the storm is expected to bring a myriad of hazards to our area. These impacts include: * Dangerous marine and high surf - Dangerous marine conditions are expected late tonight into Saturday due to the strong winds and high seas. Seas build to 11 to 16 feet late tonight into Saturday and remain elevated into Sunday. Large breaking waves of 3 to 5 ft will result in dangerous surf conditions and a high risk for rip currents. * Heavy Rain - heavy downpours could cause localized minor flooding of roads and low-lying areas, especially across northeast north Carolina, eastern and central Virginia, and the lower eastern shore of Maryland and Virginia. * Winds - Tropical Storm force wind is expected to arrive this evening into early Saturday and could lead to downed trees and scattered power outages. * Coastal Flooding - Areas of moderate to major coastal flooding are possible during high tide late tonight into Saturday. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. Potential impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway signs will sustain damage. - A few roads will be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * SURGE: Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts across northeast North Carolina, eastern Virginia and coastal portions of the lower eastern shore. Potential impacts in this area include: - Severe storm surge flooding will likely cause inundation of numerous roads and buildings, resulting in a threat to life and property. Flooding will likely extend inland from the waterfront and shoreline flooding homes, businesses and isolating some neighborhoods. Large breaking waves will result in additional damage near the shoreline. - Numerous roads flooded or washed out. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching some dunes. - Severe damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is expected. Small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected marinas and docks. Elsewhere across CENTRAL VIRGINIA. INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA, little to no impact is anticipated. * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. Potential impacts include: - Flooding from heavy rainfall may prompt evacuations and rescues - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen, with swift currents, and overspill their banks. Small streams, creeks, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures and/or weaken foundations. Some areas may experience areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures are expected. * TORNADOES: Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across Northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Potential impacts include: - Some tornadoes are expected, some of which could be intense. As a result, execution of emergency plans could be hindered in affected areas. - Several places may experience tornado damage, with a few areas of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across eastern Virginia. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately. For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders. If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of time. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area. It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter. If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in which you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities. Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by the local authorities. Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown! If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see www.readyvirginia.gov, readync.org or mema.maryland.gov - For the latest weather and storm information go to weather.gov/wakefield NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Wakefield VA around NOON EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

* WHAT. For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft expected. * WHERE. Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, Chesapeake Bay north of North Beach MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor, Chester River to Queenstown MD, and Eastern Bay. * WHEN. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT Saturday night. * IMPACTS. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels.

* WHAT. For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft expected. * WHERE. Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, Chesapeake Bay north of North Beach MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor, Chester River to Queenstown MD, and Eastern Bay. * WHEN. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT Saturday night. * IMPACTS. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels.

* WHAT. Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and waves 3 to 6 ft. * WHERE. Chesapeake Bay from North Beach MD to Smith Point VA, Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA, Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River, Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD, and Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island. * WHEN. From Friday evening through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS. Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels.

* WHAT. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE. The immediate bay-side areas of Anne Arundel County. * WHEN. From 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* WHAT. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. For the Coastal Flood Watch, up to one foot of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Calvert County. * WHEN. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 5 AM to noon EDT Saturday, especially around the time of high tide. For the Coastal Flood Watch, from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.0 feet, water is expected to reach backyards near 9th Street in North Beach, and could approach 9th Street. At 3.5 feet, yards are flooded near Charles Street and Williams Street in Solomons. Nearby parking lots and the streets themselves are covered by more than a half foot of water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The next high tide at Chesapeake Beach is at 9:26 AM and 10:23 PM. The next high tide at Solomons Island is at 8:27 PM and 8:30 AM.

* WHAT. Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Fairfax, Stafford and Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park Counties. * WHEN. From noon Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one and a half to two feet above normal. The worst flooding will occur with the Saturday afternoon and Saturday night high tides.

* WHAT. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. For the Coastal Flood Warning, one to two feet of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in St. Marys County. * WHEN. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Saturday, especially around the time of high tide. For the Coastal Flood Warning, from 2 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water covers roads on Saint George Island, is in yards, and is approaching structures. To the east, inundation is occurring at multiple marinas off St. Mary's River, Smith Creek, and Jutland Creek. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two and a half to three feet above normal. The next high tide at Coltons Point is at 8:43 PM and 9:28 AM. The next high tide at Point Lookout is at 7:42 PM and 7:50 AM. The next high tide at Piney Point is at 8:07 PM and 8:52 AM.

* WHAT. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. For the Coastal Flood Watch, up to one foot of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Charles and King George Counties. * WHEN. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Saturday, especially around the time of high tide. For the Coastal Flood Watch, from late tonight through Saturday evening, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water reaches yards near Cobb Island and docks near Dahlgren. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides up to 3 feet above normal. The next high tide at Indian Head is at 1:27 PM and 1:47 AM. The next high tide at Goose Bay is at 9:33 AM and 9:53 PM. The next high tide at Dahlgren is at 8:51 PM and 9:17 AM.

* WHAT. One to two feet of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Anne Arundel County. * WHEN. From Saturday evening through Sunday morning, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water reaches the floor of the Maritime Museum in Annapolis, begins to cover Bowyer Road on the Naval Academy campus, and numerous businesses on Dock Street are flooded, along with the City Dock parking lot. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The next high tide at Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy is at 9:55 AM and 12:09 AM.

* WHAT. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. For the Coastal Flood Watch, up to one foot of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in the District of Columbia, Arlington County, and the City of Alexandria. * WHEN. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Saturday, especially around the time of high tide. For the Coastal Flood Watch, from Saturday morning through late Saturday night, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. Shoreline inundation is expected along portions of the seawall adjacent to Ohio Drive and the Hains Point Loop Road and near the Tidal Basin. Water is expected to approach the curb near the intersection of King Street and Strand Street in Alexandria. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one and a half to two feet above normal. The next high tide at Alexandria is at 1:59 PM and 2:19 AM. The next high tide at Washington Channel is at 1:41 PM and 2:01 AM.