* WHAT. For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft expected. * WHERE. Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, Chesapeake Bay north of North Beach MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor, Chester River to Queenstown MD, and Eastern Bay. * WHEN. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT Saturday night. * IMPACTS. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels.

* WHAT. For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft expected. * WHERE. Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, Chesapeake Bay north of North Beach MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor, Chester River to Queenstown MD, and Eastern Bay. * WHEN. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT Saturday night. * IMPACTS. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels.

* WHAT. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE. The immediate bay-side areas of Southern Baltimore and Southeast Harford Counties. * WHEN. From 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* WHAT. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE. The immediate bay-side areas of Anne Arundel County. * WHEN. From 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* WHAT. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. For the Coastal Flood Watch, up to one foot of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Calvert County. * WHEN. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 5 AM to noon EDT Saturday, especially around the time of high tide. For the Coastal Flood Watch, from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.0 feet, water is expected to reach backyards near 9th Street in North Beach, and could approach 9th Street. At 3.5 feet, yards are flooded near Charles Street and Williams Street in Solomons. Nearby parking lots and the streets themselves are covered by more than a half foot of water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The next high tide at Chesapeake Beach is at 9:26 AM and 10:23 PM. The next high tide at Solomons Island is at 8:27 PM and 8:30 AM.

* WHAT. Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Fairfax, Stafford and Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park Counties. * WHEN. From noon Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one and a half to two feet above normal. The worst flooding will occur with the Saturday afternoon and Saturday night high tides.

* WHAT. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. For the Coastal Flood Watch, up to one foot of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Charles and King George Counties. * WHEN. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Saturday, especially around the time of high tide. For the Coastal Flood Watch, from late tonight through Saturday evening, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water reaches yards near Cobb Island and docks near Dahlgren. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides up to 3 feet above normal. The next high tide at Indian Head is at 1:27 PM and 1:47 AM. The next high tide at Goose Bay is at 9:33 AM and 9:53 PM. The next high tide at Dahlgren is at 8:51 PM and 9:17 AM.

* WHAT. One to two feet of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Anne Arundel County. * WHEN. From Saturday evening through Sunday morning, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water reaches the floor of the Maritime Museum in Annapolis, begins to cover Bowyer Road on the Naval Academy campus, and numerous businesses on Dock Street are flooded, along with the City Dock parking lot. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The next high tide at Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy is at 9:55 AM and 12:09 AM.

* WHAT. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. For the Coastal Flood Watch, up to one foot of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in the District of Columbia, Arlington County, and the City of Alexandria. * WHEN. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Saturday, especially around the time of high tide. For the Coastal Flood Watch, from Saturday morning through late Saturday night, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. Shoreline inundation is expected along portions of the seawall adjacent to Ohio Drive and the Hains Point Loop Road and near the Tidal Basin. Water is expected to approach the curb near the intersection of King Street and Strand Street in Alexandria. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one and a half to two feet above normal. The next high tide at Alexandria is at 1:59 PM and 2:19 AM. The next high tide at Washington Channel is at 1:41 PM and 2:01 AM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Calvert * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through early Sunday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has increased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://ready.gov/hurricanes

This product covers Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia **Conditions Begin To Deteriorate Tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions Expected over Southern Maryland Tonight through Early Sunday.** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calvert and St. Marys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 460 miles south of Washington DC or about 490 miles south of Baltimore MD - 32.3N 75.6W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement North or 350 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move north-northwest toward the North Carolina coast today before moving northward across the Mid-Atlantic Saturday through Sunday. Storm surge is expected to be the main threat from PTC 16 to our area, especially along the Western Shore and Tidal Potomac where inundation of 1 to 3 feet is expected. In particular, St. Mary's County could see significant impacts from surge where 2 to 3 feet of inundation is likely. The highest water levels will be around high tides Saturday through Saturday night. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized amounts up to 5 inches possible. This may result in isolated instances of flooding, especially for low lying and flood prone areas. The heaviest rain is most likely to occur Saturday into Saturday night. Tropical Storm force wind gusts, likely between 50 to 60 mph, are expected over southern Maryland and the nearby waters south of North Beach along the Chesapeake Bay, and south of Cobb Island along the Tidal Potomac River. Additionally, strong wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected along the waters father north along the Chesapeake Bay as well as the Tidal Potomac River up to Washington, DC. Winds are expected to begin increasing late tonight, with the strongest winds from Saturday morning through Saturday evening. Gusty winds and a saturated ground may cause downed trees and power outages, especially along the immediate western shoreline of Maryland. While the severe weather threat is low, a brief tornado or two cannot out be ruled across southern Maryland on Saturday afternoon and evening. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across the Western Shore of the Chesapeake Bay, and Tidal Potomac River. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across Southern Maryland. Potential impacts in this area include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts east of Interstate 95. Potential impacts include: - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across far southern Maryland. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. Elsewhere across Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia, little to no impact is anticipated. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area. If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities. Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by the local authorities. If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC around 6 PM EDT this evening, or sooner if conditions warrant.

* WHAT. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. Gusts up to 50 mph are likely along the immediate shore of the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac. * WHERE. Portions of central, northeast and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN. From 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. The combination of a long period of gusty winds and increasingly saturated grounds from rain will result in a higher likelihood for downed trees across the area.

* WHAT. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. Gusts up to 50 mph are likely along the immediate shore of the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac. * WHERE. Southern Baltimore, Anne Arundel and Southeast Harford Counties. * WHEN. From 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. The combination of a long period of gusty winds and increasingly saturated grounds from rain will result in a higher likelihood for downed trees across the area.