HLSMLB This product covers East Central Florida **TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE, SEMINOLE, ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Northern Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake * STORM INFORMATION: - About 690 miles south of Leesburg FL - 18.9N 83.0W - Storm Intensity 35 mph - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 8 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is located southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning and is forecast to move northwest toward the Yucatan Channel over the next 24 hours. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm today. It is then forecast to intensify into a hurricane as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical moisture will quickly increase with developing outer rain bands forecast to affect the area beginning Wednesday and increasing in coverage Wednesday night. Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected, especially as the system makes its closest approach from Wednesday night into Thursday. Locally higher rainfall totals will result from rain bands repeatedly moving over the same locations. Generally, 1 to 4 inches of total rainfall are forecast areawide with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches possible. These rainfall amounts, along with instances of higher rainfall rates, will be capable of producing flooding in low-lying and urban areas. Ponding of water on roadways may also lead to hazardous driving conditions. Any future adjustments in the track of this system may result in changes to the current rainfall forecast. Continued strengthening is forecast as the storm moves northward toward a landfall near Florida's Big Bend sometime late Thursday. It could become a major hurricane prior to landfall, and the area of tropical storm force winds is expected to encompass a large area. The potential for wind gusts up to 60 mph exists, especially across Lake County. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake Counties for the potential of tropical storm force winds beginning on Thursday. The Tropical Storm Watch includes the Greater Orlando area. In addition to strong wind gusts, a few tornadoes embedded in rain bands are possible, mainly on Thursday, as the system moves northward. Along the coast, battering surf from Wednesday night into Thursday night will cause dangerous beach conditions. Run-up to the dune line or sea walls may result in some beach erosion. Do not let your guard down, especially in locations east of the current Tropical Storm Watch. Impacts from this tropical cyclone will be experienced far from the center of the storm. Now is the time to ensure your hurricane supply kit is stocked and your safety plan is in place. As Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine becomes better organized over the next day or so, additional changes to the forecast are possible. Eastward shifts in the forecast track would increase the potential for additional impacts locally, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across east central Florida. Potential impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across Lake County. Potential impacts include: - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across the remainder of east central Florida. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across inland Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange and Osceola Counties. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which you are located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite disaster plan. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Melbourne FL around NOON EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Sanford - Altamonte Springs - Oviedo * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 to 50 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for localized flooding rain - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency - https://www.ready.gov - Local weather conditions and forecasts - http://www.weather.gov/mlb

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Leesburg - The Villages - Mount Dora * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 60 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency - https://www.ready.gov - Local weather conditions and forecasts - http://www.weather.gov/mlb

* WHAT. Minor coastal flooding. * WHERE. St Johns River Basin. * WHEN. Until 5 PM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected.

The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida. St Johns River Near Astor affecting Volusia and Lake Counties. .The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate Flood Stage through at least Thursday before falling into Minor Flood Stage on Friday. However, any additional heavy rainfall later this week and into the weekend will have the potential to delay the decline further and may cause additional rises. For the St. Johns River. including Astor. Moderate flooding is forecast. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov. The next statement will be issued Tuesday morning at 1100 AM EDT. * WHAT. Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast. * WHERE. St Johns River near Astor. * WHEN. Until further notice. * IMPACTS. At 3.0 feet, Water approaches or may enter lowest homes on or near Wildhog Road and nearby canals. Flooding reaches the parking lot of the Juno Trail Apartments. Flooding on portions of Alligator Road and Holiday Road. Lowest lying yards along Blue Creek are flooded. Roads at Astor Landing Campground and Lake Dexter Boat Ramp begin to flood. Water enters lower homes closest to the river on McPherson Lane. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. - At 8:30 PM EDT Monday the stage was 3.1 feet. - Bankfull stage is 2.0 feet. - Recent Activity. The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 8:30 PM EDT Monday was 3.2 feet. - Forecast. The river is expected to rise to a crest of 3.1 feet just after midnight tonight. - Flood stage is 2.3 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida. St Johns River Near Astor affecting Volusia and Lake Counties. .The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate Flood Stage through at least Saturday before falling into Minor Flood Stage on Sunday. However, any additional heavy rainfall associated with a developing tropical cyclone later this week may halt the river's decline and will have the potential to cause additional rises. For the St. Johns River. including Astor. Moderate flooding is forecast. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov. The next statement will be issued this evening at 1000 PM EDT. * WHAT. Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast. * WHERE. St Johns River near Astor. * WHEN. Until further notice. * IMPACTS. At 3.0 feet, Water approaches or may enter lowest homes on or near Wildhog Road and nearby canals. Flooding reaches the parking lot of the Juno Trail Apartments. Flooding on portions of Alligator Road and Holiday Road. Lowest lying yards along Blue Creek are flooded. Roads at Astor Landing Campground and Lake Dexter Boat Ramp begin to flood. Water enters lower homes closest to the river on McPherson Lane. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. - At 8:30 AM EDT Tuesday the stage was 3.0 feet. - Bankfull stage is 2.0 feet. - Recent Activity. The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 8:30 AM EDT Tuesday was 3.2 feet. - Forecast. The river is expected to rise to a crest of 3.1 feet early Thursday afternoon. - Flood stage is 2.3 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood