* WHAT. Minor coastal flooding. * WHERE. St Johns River Basin. * WHEN. Until 8 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected.

* WHAT. South winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 10 to 15 ft. * WHERE. Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM, Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM, Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM, Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. * WHEN. Tropical Storm force winds possible from Thursday afternoon until early Friday morning. * IMPACTS. Tropical storm force winds and hazardous seas could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

HLSMLB This product covers East Central Florida **TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED, TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Northern Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia, Inland Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, Okeechobee, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Northern Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia, Inland Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, Okeechobee, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands * STORM INFORMATION: - About 650 miles south-southwest of Leesburg FL - 19.7N 84.7W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Helene is organizing over the northwest Caribbean Sea this afternoon and is forecast to move northwest toward the Yucatan Channel through tonight. The system is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early Wednesday and emerge into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday afternoon. Tropical moisture will quickly increase beginning Wednesday across east central Florida. Developing outer rain bands are forecast to move northward on Wednesday. Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected, especially as the system makes its closest approach from Wednesday night into Thursday. Locally higher rainfall totals will result from rain bands repeatedly moving over the same locations. Generally, 1 to 4 inches of total rainfall are forecast areawide with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches possible. These rainfall amounts, along with instances of higher rainfall rates, will be capable of producing flooding in low-lying and urban areas, especially in areas which have received a lot of rainfall in the last 60 days. Ponding of water on roadways may also lead to hazardous driving conditions. Any future adjustments in the track of this system may result in changes to the current rainfall forecast. Continued strengthening is forecast as the storm moves northward toward a landfall near Florida's Big Bend sometime late Thursday. It is forecast become a major hurricane prior to landfall, and the area of tropical storm force winds is expected to encompass a large area, especially to the east of the storm's center. The potential for wind gusts up to 60 mph exists, especially in closer proximity to the center of the storm on Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake Counties for the potential of frequent tropical storm force gusts beginning on Thursday. This Tropical Storm Warning includes the Greater Orlando area. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, and Okeechobee counties, including the adjacent Atlantic waters. Tropical storm force gusts will be possible, particularly along the coast, near the intracoastal waterways, and in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. In addition to strong wind gusts, a few tornadoes embedded in rain bands are possible, Wednesday night through Thursday, as the system quickly moves northward. Along the coast, battering surf from Wednesday night into Thursday night will cause dangerous beach conditions. Run-up to the dune line or sea walls will result in beach erosion. Impacts will be greatest during times of high tide, occurring between 2 PM and 6 PM Wednesday and Thursday. Do not let your guard down. This will be a very large storm, and impacts will be experienced far from the center of the storm. Now is the time to ensure your hurricane supply kit is stocked and your safety plan is in place. As Tropical Storm Helene becomes better organized through Wednesday, additional changes to the forecast are possible. Eastward shifts in the forecast track would increase the potential for additional impacts locally, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across inland portions of east central Florida. Potential impacts include: - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across the remainder of east central Florida. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Melbourne FL around 12 AM EDT Wednesday, or sooner if conditions warrant.

* WHAT. South winds 25 to 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots and seas 7 to 10 feet. * WHERE. Portions of Atlantic coastal waters. * WHEN. Tropical Storm force winds possible from Thursday morning until Thursday evening. * IMPACTS. Tropical storm force winds and hazardous seas could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

HLSJAX This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia **MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL FORECAST ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Clinch, Eastern Hamilton, Echols, Northern Columbia, and Southeastern Columbia - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Appling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Bradford, Brantley, Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Glynn, Coastal Nassau, Coastal St. Johns, Coffee, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Clay, Eastern Putnam, Inland Camden, Inland Flagler, Inland Glynn, Inland Nassau, Inland St. Johns, Jeff Davis, Northeastern Charlton, Northern Ware, Pierce, South Central Duval, Southern Ware, Trout River, Union, Wayne, Western Charlton, Western Clay, Western Duval, and Western Putnam * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Clinch, Eastern Hamilton, Echols, Gilchrist, Northern Columbia, Southeastern Columbia, Southwestern Columbia, Suwannee, Western Alachua, Western Hamilton, and Western Marion - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Appling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Bradford, Brantley, Central Marion, Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Glynn, Coastal Nassau, Coastal St. Johns, Coffee, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Clay, Eastern Marion, Eastern Putnam, Inland Camden, Inland Flagler, Inland Glynn, Inland Nassau, Inland St. Johns, Jeff Davis, Northeastern Charlton, Northern Ware, Pierce, South Central Duval, Southern Ware, Trout River, Union, Wayne, Western Charlton, Western Clay, Western Duval, and Western Putnam * STORM INFORMATION: - About 760 miles south-southwest of Jacksonville FL - 19.7N 84.7W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Helene is expected to strengthen as it moves north northeast through the Gulf over the next few days, before making landfall around the Big Bend region of Florida late Thursday. The storm will then track north across the Florida panhandle, into southern Georgia Thursday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts of about 8 inches, are expected across the I-75 corridor into inland southeast Georgia, with slightly lesser amounts expected further east. Flash flooding will be possible especially for areas along the I-75 corridor. Tropical storm winds are expected to reach north central Florida Thursday morning, then overspread much of the area during the day Thursday through Thursday night. Hurricane force winds will be possible along the I-75 corridor of northeast Florida and into southeast Georgia Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Storm surge inundation of 1 to 3 feet along the northeast Florida and southeast Georgia Atlantic coast and in the St Johns river basin. This anticipated to be a very large system with impacts expected to extend far from the center. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts across inland NE FL and SE GA along the I-75 corridor. Potential impacts in this area include: - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks. - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Large areas with power and communications outages. Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to significant impacts across the remainder of northeast FL and southeast GA. * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across northeast FL and southeast GA. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * SURGE: Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across coastal Florida and Georgia and the St. Johns River. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged. Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations. If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which you are located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to area visitors. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Jacksonville FL around 1130 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - No storm surge inundation forecast - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm surge flooding - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding. Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip currents are possible. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding are needed. - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor forecasts. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has increased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain possible - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain possible - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Fruit Cove - Switzerland - Bakersville - Picolata * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: Begins this evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has increased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Efforts should now be underway to prepare for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas. - ACT: Take actions to protect life and property. Prepare to leave if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - Family Emergency Plans (FEMA): http://ready.gov/hurricanes - Local weather conditions and forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/jax/

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Bunnell - Espanola - Andalusia * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: Begins this evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has increased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Efforts should now be underway to prepare for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas. - ACT: Take actions to protect life and property. Prepare to leave if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - Family Emergency Plans (FEMA): http://ready.gov/hurricanes - Local weather conditions and forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/jax/

* WHAT. Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE. Portions of Florida, including the following areas, Baker, Bradford, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Nassau, Coastal St. Johns, Eastern Clay, Eastern Marion, Eastern Putnam, Inland Flagler, Inland Nassau, Inland St. Johns, South Central Duval, Trout River, Union, Western Clay, Western Duval and Western Putnam and southeast Georgia, including the following areas, Appling, Bacon, Brantley, Coastal Camden, Coastal Glynn, Inland Camden, Inland Glynn, Northeastern Charlton, Northern Ware, Pierce, Southern Ware, Wayne and Western Charlton. * WHEN. From Wednesday evening through Friday morning. * IMPACTS. Excessive rainfall due to a tropical system will likely result in scattered areas of flash flooding and isolated episodes of considerable flash flooding, specifically in urban flood prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. - Widespread heavy rainfall falling over a short period of time is expected as Helene accelerates northward into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and eventually making landfall somewhere along the panhandle of Florida on Thursday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are predicted from the inland northeast FL and southeast GA areas to the coast. Some localized areas may receive higher amounts around 6 inches. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

HLSJAX This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia **MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL FORECAST ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Gilchrist, Southwestern Columbia, Suwannee, Western Alachua, Western Hamilton, and Western Marion - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Central Marion and Eastern Marion * STORM INFORMATION: - About 770 miles south-southwest of Jacksonville FL - 19.5N 84.3W - Storm Intensity 45 mph - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Helene is expected to strengthen as it move north northeast through the Gulf over the next few days, before making landfall around the Big Bend region of Florida late Thursday. The storm will then track north across the Florida panhandle, into southern Georgia Thursday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts of about 8 inches, are expected across the I-75 corridor into inland southeast Georgia, with slightly lesser amounts expected further east. Tropical storm winds are expected to reach north central Florida Thursday morning, then overspread much of the area during the day Thursday through Thursday night. Hurricane force winds will be possible along the I-75 corridor of northeast Florida Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Storm surge inundation of 2 to 4 feet is possible north of Mayport, and 1 to 3 feet south of Mayport and in the St Johns river basin. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across inland NE FL along the I75 corridor. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the remainder of northeast FL and southeast GA. * SURGE: Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts across coastal Florida and Georgia. Potential impacts in this area include: - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and numerous rip currents. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages. * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across inland NE FL and inland SE GA. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across remainder of NE FL and southeast GA. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged. Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations. If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which you are located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to area visitors. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Jacksonville FL around 530PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida. St Johns River Near Astor affecting Volusia and Lake Counties. .The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate Flood Stage through at least Saturday before falling into Minor Flood Stage on Sunday. However, any additional heavy rainfall associated with a developing tropical cyclone later this week may halt the river's decline and will have the potential to cause additional rises. For the St. Johns River. including Astor. Moderate flooding is forecast. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov. The next statement will be issued this evening at 1000 PM EDT. * WHAT. Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast. * WHERE. St Johns River near Astor. * WHEN. Until further notice. * IMPACTS. At 3.0 feet, Water approaches or may enter lowest homes on or near Wildhog Road and nearby canals. Flooding reaches the parking lot of the Juno Trail Apartments. Flooding on portions of Alligator Road and Holiday Road. Lowest lying yards along Blue Creek are flooded. Roads at Astor Landing Campground and Lake Dexter Boat Ramp begin to flood. Water enters lower homes closest to the river on McPherson Lane. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. - At 8:30 AM EDT Tuesday the stage was 3.0 feet. - Bankfull stage is 2.0 feet. - Recent Activity. The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 8:30 AM EDT Tuesday was 3.2 feet. - Forecast. The river is expected to rise to a crest of 3.1 feet early Thursday afternoon. - Flood stage is 2.3 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood