The areas affected include. Waters from Princeton to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas. At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 24 nm southeast of The Elbow Light to 58 nm east of Triumph Reef, moving west northwest at 15 knots.

The areas affected include. Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 60 nm. At 406 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists detected a a strong thunderstorm, capable of producing wind gusts near 30 knots. This thunderstorm was located 28 nm northeast of Floyd's Wall Northeast, moving northwest at 15 knots. The strong thunderstorm will remain over mainly open waters.

SMWMFL The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a * Special Marine Warning for. Waters from Perrine to Ocean Reef FL from 40 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas. * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 401 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located 45 nm east of Pacific Reef, moving west at 15 knots. HAZARD. Waterspouts and wind gusts 34 knots or greater. SOURCE. Radar. IMPACT. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. * The severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly open waters.

The areas affected include. Waters from Perrine to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas. At 345 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 28 nm east of Floyd's Wall Northeast to 59 nm east of Pacific Reef, moving west at 15 knots.

* WHAT. Minor saltwater flooding will continue across the Florida Keys today through Wednesday afternoon, especially around the times of high tide. Major saltwater flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level at the shore and the lowest elevations will be possible Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon, with strong southeast to south winds impacting the Keys as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine moves northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and intensifies into a hurricane. * WHERE. The Florida Keys. * WHEN. For the Coastal Flood Statement, through Wednesday afternoon. For the Coastal Flood Watch, from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS. Through Wednesday afternoon, minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots is likely, with little relief during low tide. Some storm drains will overflow, and some seawalls and docks will be overtopped. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. Motorists should remember that persistent puddles around the times of high tide are almost certain to contain a mix of saltwater. For Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon, storm surge flooding may cause numerous roads to be closed. Low lying property including homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure may be inundated. Some shoreline erosion may occur.

HLSMFL This product covers South Florida **Tropical Storm Helene forecast to strengthen entering the Gulf of Mexico** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for Coastal Collier County and Mainland Monroe * STORM INFORMATION: - About 500 miles south-southwest of Miami FL or about 480 miles south-southwest of Naples FL - 19.5N 84.3W - Storm Intensity 45 mph - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The following are the primary hazards of concern with Tropical Storm Helene: * Coastal Flooding/Surge - Higher than usual tides due to the combination of surge from Helene and the recent full moon could lead to coastal flooding of 2 to 4 ft later this week over portions of Coastal Collier and mainland Monroe Counties, with the highest tides expected on Thursday. Inundation could be as much as 6 feet in a few areas along the Collier County coast if the track shifts east and/or the storm is stronger. Other vulnerable coastal areas of southern Florida could also experience minor coastal flooding, especially around the times of high tide. * Rainfall - The majority of the rainfall associated with the system is forecast to fall Wednesday through Friday. Rainfall will range between 3 to 5 inches across most of the area. Locally higher amounts of 6+ inches are possible and will depend on how this system tracks and evolves through the week. A Flood Watch will be in effect for Southwest Florida and may become necessary for other portions of southern Florida. * Wind - The highest probabilities for sustained tropical storm force winds will be along the Gulf coast of Southwest Florida, including Collier and mainland Monroe Counties, and adjacent Gulf waters. All of South Florida could see strong winds gusts with squalls Wednesday through Friday. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * SURGE: Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts across coastal Southwest Florida. Potential impacts in this area include: - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and numerous rip currents. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages. Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated. * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across Southwest Florida. Potential impacts include: - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across Southeast Florida. * WIND: Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across Southwest Florida. Potential impacts in this area include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged. Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations. If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to area visitors. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Miami FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Flamingo - Cape Sable - Loop Road * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: Begins Wednesday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 3 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should soon be brought to completion before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or needlessly risk lives. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and numerous rip currents. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - https://www.weather.gov/mfl

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Flamingo - Cape Sable - Loop Road * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: Begins Wednesday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 3 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should soon be brought to completion before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or needlessly risk lives. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and numerous rip currents. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - https://www.weather.gov/mfl

ESFMFL Tropical Storm Helene is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move through the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring deep tropical moisture across South Florida with PWAT values reaching the 2.3 to 2.6 inch range. The aforementioned PWAT values will be at the maximum climatological values for this time of year supporting the potential of heavy rainfall, especially across urban areas. Potential rainfall amounts between tonight through Saturday morning looks to be between 3 to 5 inches over the east coast metro areas of South Florida with locally higher amounts possible where a duration of heavy rain continues for an extended period of time. There is still some uncertainty regarding the forecast over the next couple of days. Users are reminded that shifts in the track of the system may causes changes in rainfall totals as uncertainty still remains. A Flood Watch may be issued if confidence and potential rainfall amounts increase. Interests in South Florida should stay tuned to the latest forecasts from NWS Miami and the National Hurricane Center.