* WHAT. Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 6 to 11 ft expected. * WHERE. Biscayne Bay, Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM, Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas. * WHEN. Until 6 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

HLSMFL This product covers South Florida **Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings For Southwest Florida Coast** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning and the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Collier County and Mainland Monroe - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Glades, Hendry, and Inland Collier County * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for Coastal Collier County and Mainland Monroe - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Glades, Hendry, and Inland Collier County * STORM INFORMATION: - About 510 miles southwest of Miami FL or about 480 miles south-southwest of Naples FL - 19.7N 84.7W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The following are the primary hazards of concern with Tropical Storm Helene: * Coastal Flooding/Surge - Higher than usual tides due to the combination of surge from Helene and the recent full moon could lead to coastal flooding of 3 to 5 ft later this week over portions of Coastal Collier and mainland Monroe Counties, with the highest tides expected on Thursday. Inundation could be as much as 6 feet in a few areas along the Collier County coast if the track shifts east and/or the storm is stronger. Other vulnerable coastal areas of southern Florida could also experience minor coastal flooding, especially around the times of high tide. * Rainfall - The majority of the rainfall associated with the system is forecast to fall Wednesday through Friday. Rainfall will range between 3 to 5 inches across most of the area. Locally higher amounts of 6+ inches are possible and will depend on how this system tracks and evolves through the week. A Flood Watch will be in effect for Southwest Florida and may become necessary for other portions of southern Florida. * Wind - The highest probabilities for sustained tropical storm force winds will be along the Gulf coast of Southwest Florida, including Collier and mainland Monroe Counties, and adjacent Gulf waters. All of South Florida could see strong winds gusts with squalls Wednesday through Friday. * Tornadoes - An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out on Wednesday and Thursday as the outer bands of Helene push through the area. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * SURGE: Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts across coastal Southwest Florida. Potential impacts in this area include: - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and numerous rip currents. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages. Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated. * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across Southwest Florida. Potential impacts include: - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across Southeast Florida. * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by the local authorities. Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown! If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Miami FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

ESFMFL Tropical Storm Helene is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move through the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring deep tropical moisture across South Florida with PWAT values reaching the 2.3 to 2.6 inch range. The aforementioned PWAT values will be at the maximum climatological values for this time of year supporting the potential of heavy rainfall, especially across urban areas. Potential rainfall amounts between tonight through Saturday morning looks to be between 3 to 5 inches over the east coast metro areas of South Florida with locally higher amounts possible where a duration of heavy rain continues for an extended period of time. There is still some uncertainty regarding the forecast over the next couple of days. Users are reminded that shifts in the track of the system may causes changes in rainfall totals as uncertainty still remains. A Flood Watch may be issued if confidence and potential rainfall amounts increase. Interests in South Florida should stay tuned to the latest forecasts from NWS Miami and the National Hurricane Center.